I like the Vandals here in this spot. They are the better team overall and though they are on the road we only account 3-4 points so I think they should be more like a 3 point under dog yet we are getting over 5 points at some books. Both of these clubs have top 100 offenses and are #1 and #2 in offense in their conference but are below average on defense ranking 10th and 11th in conference play. Idaho overall has faced a bit stronger schedule as far as the offenses they have gone up against and they have held up better vs. top 100 offenses going 1-2 but holding those opponents to 89, 86, and 71 meanwhile Sacramento State vs. top 100 offenses (like they'll face today) has gone 0-3 and allowed 84, 80 and 104 losing by 11, 5, and 46. Their last game vs. Northern Colorado looks awfully similar to this game. Northern Colorado has a top 100 offense (Idaho is a bit better) and a bottom of the league defense (Idaho is a bit better). Overall I'd say Idaho is a better team than Northern Colorado who is far worse in rebound rate and just a bit worse in 2 point defense. Actually Idaho is better in both those categories than Sac State. The most glaring is the advantage they'll have on the boards here tonight ranking in the top 100 in rebound rate while Sacramento State comes in at 237th. I expect Idaho to win this game outright but 5.5 points is just too good to be true.

Where to find Freddy?